Coronavirus restrictions are “biggest short-term threat”: UBS

A lady wears a face masks as she walks down St Mary Road on October 19, 2020 in Cardiff, Wales. Wales will go into nationwide lockdown from Friday to November ninth.

Matthew Horwood | Getty Photographs Information | Getty Photographs

SINGAPORE – Economies world wide are elevating restrictions on motion as they proceed to battle the coronavirus pandemic. In line with the Swiss financial institution UBS, this can be a “main draw back threat” for the fourth quarter.

“Overlook about US elections or fiscal incentives – larger restrictions are the largest short-term threat to prospects,” wrote economist Arend Kapteyn in an October 19 be aware.

“If international locations begin to impose circuit breaker bans that solely final a number of weeks, it may very well be sufficient to show a constructive development charge (fourth quarter) adverse,” he stated.

The time period “circuit breaker” has grow to be well-liked within the UK and refers to a quick however strict lockdown designed to interrupt the chain of an infection.

There have been greater than 40.6 million circumstances of coronavirus worldwide, and a minimum of 1.12 million folks have died, in line with Johns Hopkins College.

Rising restrictions

Numerous economies, together with France and the Netherlands, have tightened the measures in current weeks, wrote Kapteyn. Since March, UBS has been monitoring restrictions on the mobility of coronaviruses in 42 areas on a scale from 1 to 10 on a weekly foundation.

In line with the financial institution, the gross home product decreases by 6 proportion factors if the restrictiveness will increase by one level for a complete quarter.

Final month, the UK and the Netherlands rose from a “reasonable” score of two.5 to a “medium” score of 5. UBS additionally elevated the Czech Republic’s rating by 2 factors to 4.Three and Eire and France by 1.5 factors to 4.Three 4.5.

The median of the restriction is 3.5, a slight enhance in comparison with August however a lower from eight in April.

“Nonetheless, the variety of international locations taking motion has elevated,” stated Kapteyn. Final week, 13 economies raised restrictions whereas three lowered them, the very best “internet” determine since April.

“We have to monitor how lengthy the restrictions persist and the way mobility reacts, however that is now a serious draw back threat to our steering for (fourth quarter),” he stated.

– CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt contributed to this report.

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