BOSTON (CBS) – Are you looking for a pick-me-up that day after the elections? Look no further than the 7 day forecast! After a week of cold and record-breaking snowfall, winter is hiding again for a while. November may not be a favorite month for many (if you ask me, the only redeeming quality is the turkey), but despite the short days, we can still experience amazing periods of the weather.
Average highs at this time of year range from the mid-50s to the start of the month and quickly fall into the upper 40s within a few weeks. Today (Wednesday) will be a fairly “typical” day for November standards. However, this will be the last “feeling normal” day for some time. The pattern that will emerge over the next few weeks (at least) has a large ridge in the east and a low in the west. As a result, unusually mild air can flood the east coast for the foreseeable future. The daily highs by the middle of next week here in southern New England are between 10 and 20 degrees above average (mid-1960s to mid-1970s). While records aren’t all that likely (most are between 74 and 78 degrees in Boston), on some occasions we might get within a few degrees.
I know what you’re thinking – we only had 3 to 6 inches of snow last week and now we’re talking about near-record warmth? Well, that’s not all that unprecedented. Do you remember “Snow-tober” from 2011? The region was buried under heavy, wet snowfall before Halloween. What you may not remember was the warmth that followed in November 2011. That month the average was almost 6 degrees above average with a whopping 14 days in the 60s! November 2020 may not be quite as warm, but it will almost certainly end up as an above-average month overall as it currently stands.
And what could this mean for the coming winter, if anything? One of the factors that we take into account when making a winter forecast is what is known as the “November rule”. . . Simply put, that means, as November goes, so does winter. In other words, a mild November often leads to a mild winter and vice versa. But of course there are always exceptions to the rule. . . just look at last year. We had a very cold November last year, which led many forecasters to predict an above-average colder winter. That couldn’t have been more wrong. However, if you take our previous example of a very mild November in 2011, then in this case it worked like a charm. The following winter was very mild and had a record low of 9.3 inches of snow! Could we look forward to a repeat of 2011? We will see…
First, dust off the golf clubs and put the snow shovels back in the shed. The early arrival of winter is back on hold.
Follow Terry on Twitter @TerryWBZ