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With much of California starting a stay at home order on Sunday evening, it’s becoming clear that the COVID-19 surge is likely to get worse before it gets better.
The average daily coronavirus cases have increased six-fold since the beginning of October. Hospital stays have quadrupled since late October; and the average daily deaths have nearly tripled in the past month.
Hospital stays and daily deaths are expected to increase. It can take two weeks for someone diagnosed with the coronavirus to get sick enough to be hospitalized and seven to 10 more days for them to be admitted to the intensive care unit.
Officials have feared Thanksgiving weekend will cause the spread of the virus, and those infections are likely to appear over the next week as well. Los Angeles County hit more than 9,000 new cases on Saturday, a sign that the holiday made things worse.
The question is whether the new home stay policy, which is unpopular in some quarters and will continue to harm a troubled economy, can finally turn the curve.
Here is an overview:
Nationwide
Cases: California has reported an average of nearly 19,000 new coronavirus cases per day for the past week – up six times the number from early October, when the state averaged 3,200 new cases per day over the same period.
The sharp rise is the unstoppable leap in the daily falls. California had the third largest number of coronavirus cases reported in a single day on Saturday: 21,528. This is just one day after the state broke its daily record at 22,369 on Friday.
Hospital stays: California is nearing a milestone of 10,000 people hospitalized with COVID-19 infections at any point. There were 9,430 people with confirmed COVID-19 infections in California’s hospitals on Friday – four times more than in late October when about 2,300 people were hospitalized with the disease.
Hospital admissions have grown so rapidly since Friday that the record was broken for seven consecutive days. The series of records began on November 28th when the total number was 7,415.
Deaths: In California, an average of 107 people a day die from the virus – a high that has not been reached since late summer. Average daily deaths have almost tripled since early November when an average of 40 people died per day.
Test positivity rate: The rate at which coronavirus test results are positive again has risen to 9.7%, according to the seven-day average published by health officials on Saturday. That’s three times what it was last month when the rate was 3.2% on November 1, and shows the virus is spreading rapidly across the state.
Los Angeles County
Cases: For the past week, Los Angeles County has seen an average of nearly 7,000 new coronavirus cases a day – almost seven times as many as in mid-October when LA County’s average of 1,000 cases a day.
L.A. County broke one-day coronavirus case records in four of the last five days of this past week. 9,218 cases were reported on Saturday, according to the Times independent tally, which broke a record set Friday when 8,562 cases were reported. The daily record was also broken on Thursday when 7,713 cases were reported.
The numbers mean LA County’s coronavirus cases are increasing at a pace even worse than officials forecast earlier this week. On Tuesday, The Times reported that LA County officials forecast the region would see 9,000 cases daily Mid to end the week of December 7th. The county passed that threshold on Saturday.
Hospital stays: According to data released on Saturday, L.A. County hit its sixth consecutive day record for COVID-19 hospitalizations with 2,855 people being hospitalized. That’s four times the number from early October when about 700 people were in hospitals with such infections.
Of those currently hospitalized with COVID-19 in Los Angeles County, 666 are in intensive care units, a number higher than at any point in the pandemic. The number of intensive care units in LA County has more than tripled since early October, when fewer than 200 people with coronavirus infections were in intensive care units, and has hit new highs in the past three days.
Deaths: With at least 43 new COVID-19 deaths on Saturday, L.A. County is currently recording an average of 38 deaths per day, a pace not reached since the region’s previous peak in late July. The latest average daily number has nearly quadrupled since early November when there was an average of 10 deaths per day.
San Diego County
Cases: San Diego County saw an average of more than 1,500 cases a day for the past week on Thursday, a record. That’s more than five times the number in early October, when about 270 cases were diagnosed daily.
2,287 new cases were reported on Saturday, the second highest total for a single day.
Hospital stays: The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 in San Diego County has nearly quadrupled since early October when about 200 people were hospitalized with the infection. According to data released on Saturday, there were 772 people with COVID-19 in the hospital.
Deaths: There was an average of eight deaths a day in San Diego County for the past week.
Orange County
Cases: Orange County saw a record number of new coronavirus cases in a single day on Saturday: 1,966. This is the third time in the past two weeks that Orange County has set a daily record.
Orange County has averaged 1,150 cases a day for the past week – that’s seven times worse than in mid-October, when Orange County recorded about 170 cases a day.
Hospital stays: Orange County has achieved its third consecutive day record for COVID-19 hospital stays with 842 people, according to data released on Saturday. That’s more than five times worse than in mid-October when about 160 were hospitalized.
Deaths: Orange County had an average of six deaths a day for the past week.
Riverside County
Cases: Riverside County has averaged 808 cases a day for the past week, three times as many as it did as of mid-October.
Hospital stays: Riverside County has hit its seventh consecutive day record for COVID-19 hospital stays with 687 hospital stays, according to data released on Saturday. That’s more than five times worse than in early October when about 135 were hospitalized.
Deaths: Riverside County had an average of five deaths a day for the past week.
San Bernardino County
Cases: San Bernardino County broke its daily record for coronavirus cases on Saturday, counting 3,178 cases – the first time the county has passed the 3,000 mark.
San Bernardino County had an average of 1,678 coronavirus cases per day for the past week, six times worse than in mid-October.
Hospital stays: Since Thanksgiving, San Bernardino County has broken eight of its nine-day daily hospital records, according to data released on Saturday. 913 people lived with COVID-19 in San Bernardino County’s hospitals – that’s five times worse than in mid-October.
Deaths: In San Bernardino County there was an average of seven deaths a day for the past week.
Ventura County
Cases: Ventura County has had an average of 497 coronavirus cases a day for the past week, ten times as bad as it was in mid-October when there was an average of less than 50 cases a day.
Hospital stays: Ventura County set a new record for COVID-19 hospital stays, according to data released on Saturday. 111 people were hospitalized with such infections. In early November there were approximately 30 COVID-19 patients in Ventura County hospitals.
Deaths: Ventura County had an average of two deaths a day for the past week.
