BOSTON (CBS) – It all came together yesterday at this time. The models appeared to be approaching a solution, and confidence in the meteorological world grew for areas south of Boston with a marked decline to the north. We all sat on a fastball last night and Mother Nature gave us a curve. Should have read the scouting report, I think. If there’s one thing New Englander knows, the weather can change in an instant, as can the forecast.
If you read my little afternoon blog yesterday, or maybe flipped WBZ and saw Eric Fisher last night, you’ve heard things like …
– Light and fluffy snowfall for everyone
– Sharp shutdown to the snow plow north of Boston
-Highest snow totals south of Boston
That was yesterday …
Today these statements read more like this …
– Light and fluffy snow NORTH WEST OF BOSTON, heavier and wetter along the coast and in the southeast with some mixtures on the Cape and on the islands
-The snow plow will likely extend north into Skiland!
-WIDE SWATH of 8-14 “snow in southern New England
So, yeah … big changes in the last 24 hours. Are we done We will see.
One thing that hasn’t changed much is the timeline.
The first flakes arrive around 7 p.m. in southwest Connecticut and at 11 p.m. in northeast Massachusetts (Essex County).
The snowfall becomes steady across southern England after midnight.
The heaviest snow falls between around 2 a.m. and 10 a.m. on Thursday.
The intensity decreases after 10 a.m., probably with 80-90% of the accumulation at this point.
Between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. we see scattered light to moderate bands of snow, the coverage of which is gradually decreasing.
After 4 p.m. only a few remaining coastal thunderstorms.
Expected snow accumulation:
Widely used 8-14 “ over most of southern New England, north of Cape Cod and the south coast. The main difference here will be in the nature of the snow … light and fluffy stuff west of I95 and much heavier / wetter snow within I95, including the coast and most of southeastern MA.
While there may be more rainfall (water equivalent) in the south, it may end up with the same total values. Less water content in the northwest, but fluffier snow accumulates much more easily.
4-8 “ across the south coast and the Upper Cape near the canal, including Martha’s vineyard. This is due to very wet snow / mixed precipitation.
4-8 “ north of Manchester and Keene, New Hampshire, due to less rainfall available … very light and fluffy up there.
2-4 “ There’s a lot of mixing here over the Outer Cape and Nantucket
Not a huge storm, so winds won’t be nearly as high as some of our more notable Nor’easters have been in the past.
The strongest winds will be on the outer cape and in Nantucket with gusts of up to 90 km / h.
Gusts between 35-45 miles per hour are expected along the remaining coast.
Much less wind inland, with winds mostly between 15 and 35 miles per hour.
Floods on the coast:
The tides during the storm will be astronomical, which means we will have to watch out for flooding on the coast.
Fortunately, the storm peak occurs at low tide (Thursday morning), so on Thursday (12:52 p.m. in Boston) only minor splashes and vulnerable street flooding are expected during the midday wedding.
Incidentally, as currently forecast, this storm could be one of the biggest pre-Christmas storms in Boston! To make the top 5, Boston would have to be taller than 12.5 inches, which was our last “big” (before Christmas) in 2008. It sure has been a while since we had a big snow storm before Santa Claus arrived in town.
As always, we urge you to keep up to date with updated forecasts on WBZ-TV, CBSBoston.com and CBSN Boston in advance of and during nor’easter.