Projected 2021 NFL draft contract

The Jacksonville Jaguars ranked number 1 overall in the 2021 NFL draft while the New York Jets won number 2. The Jets have been favorites for the top spot since week 5 according to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), but two consecutive wins in weeks 15 and 16 mean the Jaguars now have their chance at the top U.S. quarterback class. The rest of the top 10 are still undecided.

During the season, the FPI projects the draft order every week, simulating 10,000 times for the rest of the season. The game probabilities are largely based on the ratings of the model for individual teams in addition to the venues. The order is based on the record the model will have for the teams after 16 games, as well as each team’s average design position in the simulations.

Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2021 NFL Draft (updated December 28):

FPI chance to reach number 1: Clinched

FPI chance to reach number 2: Clinched

Average design position: 4.5
FPI chance of top 5 selection: 75.8%
FPI chance of top 10 selection: Clinched

Average design position: 4.7
FPI chance of top 5 selection: 62%
FPI chance of top 10 selection: Clinched

Average design position: 5.3
FPI chance of top 5 selection: 73.7%
FPI chance of top 10 selection: Clinched

Average design position: 6.4
FPI chance of top 5 selection: 40.6%
FPI chance of top 10 selection: Clinched

Average design position: 7.0
FPI chance of top 5 selection: 28.3%
FPI chance of top 10 selection: 84.3%

Average design position: 8.0
FPI chance of top 5 selection: 9.2%
FPI chance of top 10 selection: 77%

Average design position: 10.3
FPI chance of top 5 selection: 0.3%
FPI chance of top 10 selection: 53.6%

Average design position: 10.8
FPI chance of top 5 selection: Eliminated
FPI chance of top 10 selection: 45.4%

Average design position: 11.4
FPI chance of top 5 selection: 10.1%
FPI chance of top 10 selection: 49.2%

Average design position: 12.0
FPI chance of top 5 selection: Eliminated
FPI chance of top 10 selection: 52.2%

Average design position: 13.3
FPI chance of top 5 selection: Eliminated
FPI chance of top 10 selection: 1.4%

Average design position: 13.4
FPI chance of top 5 selection: Eliminated
FPI chance of top 10 selection: 0.6%

Average design position: 14.8
FPI chance of top 5 selection: Eliminated
FPI chance of top 10 selection: 0.2%

Average design position: 16.3
FPI chance of top 10 selection: Eliminated

Average design position: 16.4
FPI chance of top 10 selection: 36.2%

Average design position: 18.4
FPI chance of top 10 selection: Eliminated

Average design position: 19.9
FPI chance of top 10 selection: Eliminated

Average design position: 20.6
FPI chance of top 10 selection: Eliminated

Average design position: 22.2

Average design position: 22.3

Average design position: 22.8

Average design position: 24.0

Average design position: 25.1

Average design position: 26.3

Average design position: 26.5

Average design position: 27.2

Average design position: 27.5

Average design position: 28.0

Average design position: 29.2

Average design position: 30.5