BOSTON (CBS) – Why do we live here?
I’ve heard and read this phrase on social media more than a couple of times in the past 24 hours. It happens a few times in winter when people look inside and start questioning their existence in New England. Some accuse their parents of not “getting them out early”. Others accuse their children of “being too happy here” and not wanting to move.
I have to admit, I’ve found myself guilty on occasion. In the depths of winter we can easily forget how good we are here in summer and autumn. I think my deepest winter moment came back in February 2015. While I was in the midst of a record amount of snowfall, like many of you, I spent much of my free time chopping on the iceberg that was once my roof. I still remember telling my wife something like, “This is it … we’re moving to San Diego, I don’t care how boring the weather is!” (Of course it was a little more colorful than that, but not suitable for this blog)
But unfortunately, no matter how brutal and endless winter sometimes seems here, it makes spring all the sweeter when it finally arrives shortly after Memorial Day.
We really haven’t had that bad lately. To blame for global warming, or just a mild pattern, but the past two winters have only had a handful of really excruciating weather days. Thursday night marked the first time Boston has dipped into the single digits in two years! Of course we will spend the whole weekend below 32 degrees, but on Sunday it will feel tastier outdoors when the wind subsides and the core of the cold fades away.
So, sit down and hibernate for the next 48 hours and it will be like this, this has never happened before:
Friday high temperature: 15-20 degrees, wind shower -5 to -15
Friday evening / Saturday morning: Lowest values in the single-digit range, wind showers -5 to -20
Saturday during the day: high temperatures 15-25, wind cools 0 to 10 degrees
Saturday evening / Sunday morning: Lows 5-15, winds much less, gusts -5 to 5
Sunday: Very little wind, high temperatures in the 20s
If you’ve been looking for information on next week’s blizzard on this blog, stop here. Are you ready for a one-two punch in winter? Just kidding, I wouldn’t go there.
As soon as the cold subsides, our attention will be directed to a storm system emerging off the mid-Atlantic coast in the late weekend. Let me start with the mandatory, there is still a long way to go and a lot can happen that this forecast will change in the coming days … yadda, yadda.
This has been on our “radar” for a few days and the models were actually very consistent this week (which sometimes scares me). The energy for the storm will land in Southern California on Friday and then land across the country this weekend and somewhere off our coast on Monday.
The observed time frame seems to be late Monday afternoon and in the evening through Tuesday. With this system there is the possibility of a considerable amount of snow, which, as always, depends on the track. At this point, there are still a few options on the table.
– A classic route over 40N 70W with a foot or more of snow in a large part of our region.
– Just a little further south, meaning more snow in southeast Massachusetts and less in the north and west.
– A stretch so far south that we are only grazed with a much smaller amount of snow (similar to earlier this week). I would rate this scenario as a long shot, somewhere between 10 and 20%.
Enough uncertainty to warrant this, it’s sure to stay up to date with the latest predictions this weekend. Using a classic route, this would be a true northeast coast with significant coastal winds and the potential for coastal flooding (the tides are astronomically high next week).
My gut feeling it will happen. The first week of February is ripe for this type of storm and for us it is usually the most active and snowiest time of all winter. The devil is in the details and these will come in the next few days.
One last thing, put this in the “Something for Everyone” section. As I said, the signal for this nor’easter was strong, but the models were also selected for a quick warm-up at the end of next week and maybe some rain until next weekend! Bitter cold, too warm and rainy at Easter? That sounds about right. Wouldn’t you like to live somewhere else?
Follow Terry on Twitter @TerryWBZ