BOSTON (CBS) – Welp, it’s coming. Refuel the snow blowers, a classic Nor’easter is on its way there.
This one is going to make some serious headlines and drop a fair amount of snow along the east coast. The storm hits New York City early Monday, and then it’s our turn. Do you have any travel plans in the northeast for the next few days? Good luck!
The timing in our area is such that I suspect that most schools will stay open early Monday but will be closed for late day and evening activities.
Although the storm is largely over by Tuesday, I would expect school closings / remote work days to easily be in the hundreds.
Monday 8 a.m.: Some light ocean-effect storms are possible, especially in southeastern masses, and steady snow arrives in Connecticut
Monday at noon: Moderate, accumulating snow is advancing and pushing north. Should snow evenly anywhere south of Mass Pike and the first light storms to arrive in areas north of Pike in Middlesex, Essex Counties
Monday 4 p.m .: Even snow for most, if not all, of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. Heaviest south of the pike, some areas in parts of CT, R. I., and Southeast Mass snows at 1 to 2 inches per hour. First light snow to arrive in south New Hampshire. The winds on the south coast, on the cape and on the islands are now gusty.
Monday 8pm: Moderate to heavy snow is now falling throughout southern New England. Widespread 2-4 ″ accumulation already on the ground. Rain mixes over Nantucket, Outer Cape Cod. Winds really increase over SE MA, northeast gusts 25-45 mph.
Midnight: Coastal front along the Interstate 95 corridor. The heaviest snow has now turned north and west of Boston and I-95 into counties Middlesex and Worcester. Rain mixes over most of the southeastern mass, and temperatures rise along the immediate coast, including Boston, where they are also about to mix with rain.
By midnight there is already a widespread accumulation of 4 to 8 inches, with some areas up to 10 inches. The snow accumulation occurs almost on the immediate coast and over SE MA. The northeast winds are now peaking with gusts of 35 to 55 miles per hour along the coast and over SE MA. 25-45 mph gusts inland.
Overnight until Tuesday morning: The warm air current makes it furthest inland, the coastal front being pushed back between 128 and 495 5-10 miles from the coast into counties Essex and Middlesex. The heaviest snow is also pushed west in Worcester County and pushed even further north and west at dawn in Vermont and New Hampshire.
By dawn, 90-95% of all snow accumulation in southern New England will be over. Common 8-14 ″ cover a good portion of our area (especially west of I95). The winds have now peaked and are starting to turn even more northerly, sometimes between 25 and 45. Finally, the first worrying high tide occurs between 2 and 3 a.m., resulting in minor to moderate flooding on the coast in the typically vulnerable and vulnerable areas, mainly between 1 and 4 a.m.
Tuesday during the day: After dawn, precipitation becomes more scattered and lighter when dry air enters the storm. There are a few showers of rain, sleet and snow on Tuesday mornings in southern New England.
Very little additional accumulation is expected at this point. Clean up time! One thing to consider when the storm retreats, winds will continue to turn north and northwest and temperatures will return to below freezing in areas that were previously above it.
In the afternoon, rain showers turn back into snow showers and untreated surfaces freeze. The winds will subside quite a bit with the day rolling on Tuesday and the 20s gusts subside in the afternoon. Finally, one last flood of concern, between 2-3am. Tuesday afternoon. During this cycle, minor coastal flooding is expected as the winds subside and the wind continues to blow north.
- Coating at 3 inches for Nantucket and parts of the Outer Cape, all of which happened in the earliest stages of the storm and eventually washed away
- 3-6 ″ for the rest of the Cape, Martha’s Vineyard and the south coast to Plymouth. The snow down here is very heavy and wet and is later heavily compacted by rain in a storm (if not washed away)
- 6-9 ″ immediate coast from Cape Ann via Boston and I-95 to Providence. This will be very heavy, wet snow that will also be compacted by some rain late in the storm
- 9-14 “strip of southern New England, north and west of I-95. Covers most of the counties of Middlesex and Worcester, plus southern New Hampshire. The further west you go, the lighter and fluffier. Hardest right on or in near I-95.
START OF A LONG MONTH?
So, the big question, is this a one and go and on until spring or just the beginning of a long month?
With continued rain and snow showers on Tuesday (February 2nd), I would guess the local marmots might not see their shadows, which means early spring (if you believe in things like that). We’ll be warming up later this week, with the possibility of some rain over the weekend.
A sign of milder things? Maybe, but in any case, I won’t or won’t stick a fork in the winter of February.
Follow Terry on Twitter @TerryWBZ