BOSTON (CBS) – Is it me or does it seem to have snowed almost every day this month? Many of us woke up Thursday morning with very light snow, and while nothing added up, for some it was the seventh day of that month (out of 11 days) that snow was in the air.
I think we could all have a few days off to scrape and shovel, so this little break we are in right now came just in time. So are we done? Is that all February has? Absolutely not.
New England will be right in the line of fire next week as there will be multiple storms that are coming our way in a very active and wintry pattern across the US.
Storm # 1 … Valentine’s Day
This looks like a minor event.
Light snow is expected to start around midnight on Saturday evening and continue through around noon on Sunday. Not only is the intensity quite low, but the snow can be a bit scattered at times, and it is likely that something will mix with sleet or rain in the south.
We are currently forecasting 1 to 3 inches for most of southern New England outside the South Coast and Cape.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we lowered that forecast in the next 24 to 48 hours.
Bottom line: if you have Valentine’s plans on Saturday night, Sunday afternoon, or evening, you should be ready.
Storm # 2… Monday through Tuesday
Much more uncertainty as this is 4-5 days away.
We have been keeping an eye on this for several days and the stakes are much higher than the storm on Sunday.
There are now signs that there could be a first wave ahead of the main storm that could bring light snow to our area on Monday with only minor buildup.
The main storm appears to come on Tuesday morning and could be a full day Tuesday event. It has no east potential with coastal winds, rain / snow lines, and significant snow accumulations on the maps.
At this point, odds prefer that the heaviest snow is north and west of Boston. The models give a 50% chance of more than 3 inches of snow in this area (which is quite solid so far out).
You have to watch the trends over the weekend and see if the route ends closer to the coast (which drives the milder air father inland) or more of a classic Nor’easter snow route for southern New England.
Storm number 3 Thursday-Friday
Since that forecast is a week away, it’s very poor at best … but the signal was there for another storm on the models during this period.
Early signs suggest this storm could be further west than Tuesday.
Might very well start as snow late Thursday and turn into rain on Friday.
But really, this one is just too far away to speculate further.
Will that be it?
Several large atmospheric changes take place in the 7-10 day range. The blockage over the North Atlantic (NAO becomes neutral to positive) will subside and the Polar Vortex appears to be tightening again in the Arctic (AO becomes neutral to positive).
This could allow La Nina to take over in late February and March and bring much milder temperatures to our region. Do you remember the episode “Stratospheric Warming” that happened in mid-January? This has been the main driver of the recent cold and snow in mid-latitudes in Europe and North America. These “episodes” usually have a lasting effect of about 6 to 8 weeks, which makes us right at the end of February.
So … I’d say go out for the next 1-2 weeks and maybe, just maybe, we could get a taste of early spring.