BOSTON (CBS) – Is it me or does it seem to have snowed almost every day this month? Many of us woke up to very light snow last Thursday morning and while nothing added up, for some it was the seventh day of that month (out of 11 days) that snow was in the air.
That little break we’ve had over the past few days came just in time, but are we finished? Is that all February has? Absolutely not.
New England will be right in the line of fire next week as there will be multiple storms in the US that are coming our way in a very active and wintry pattern.
Storm # 1 … Valentine’s Day
This will be a minor event, but there is one WINTER WEATHER ADVICE Posted for the South Coast, Cape and Islands for a mix of snow and ice that can result in slippery conditions on untreated surfaces until Sunday morning.
Light snow hit the southeast on Saturday night, with the best shot of patchy snow build-up a coating to 1 inch before a switch to freezing rain.
Expect a cloudy day on Sunday with a slightly wintry mix at times. The best mixing chances are for southeast Massachusetts with mostly snow showers in the north and west. The intensity of the precipitation will be quite low on Sunday. Sunday highs range from the lower 30s in central and northern Massachusetts to the mid to upper 30s in southeast Massachusetts.
Storm # 2… Monday through Tuesday
A bit more insecurity as we are a little more than a day away. We have been keeping an eye on this though as the stakes are much higher than Sunday’s storm.
Signs continue to show an initial wave ahead of the main storm which, with only minor build-ups of coatings up to 1 inch of snow, could bring light snow into a wintry mix in our area on Monday. Here too, untreated roads can become slippery.
The main storm appears to come on Tuesday morning and is an all-day event. This storm can cause heavy snow, ice, rain, and coastal problems. The latest trends have pushed warmer air into the system, especially the air, which means it could be more of a major glaciation event for parts of the area offshore. This might lower the snow totals for some, but leave a slippery and dangerous mess in the area.
Ice build-up can cause damage, travel disruptions, and power outages (too early for certain total amounts of snow, but plowable snow is likely in parts of New England). It is also possible that more sleet and / or rain mix would reduce the amount of ice.
We must continue to closely monitor the route as any shift will ultimately determine what type of precipitation we will see and where. Overall, the liquid content in this storm is about 0.5 “to 1” so there is plenty of moisture to work with.
Storm number 3 Thursday-Friday
That forecast is poor at best … but the signal was there for another storm on the models during this period.
Early signs suggest this storm could be further west than Tuesday.
Might very well start as snow late Thursday and turn into rain on Friday.
Will that be it?
Several large atmospheric changes take place in the 7-10 day range. The blockage over the North Atlantic (NAO becomes neutral to positive) will subside and the Polar Vortex appears to be tightening again in the Arctic (AO becomes neutral to positive).
This could allow La Nina to take over in late February and March and bring much milder temperatures to our region. Do you remember the episode “Stratospheric Warming” that happened in mid-January? This has been the main driver of the recent cold and snow in mid-latitudes in Europe and North America. These “episodes” usually have a lasting effect of about 6 to 8 weeks, which makes us right at the end of February.
So … I’d say go out for the next 1-2 weeks and maybe, just maybe, we could get a taste of early spring.