Widespread 4-7 inches of snow likely in southern New England Thursday through Friday – CBS Boston

BOSTON (CBS) – One down, one out … for this week anyway.

The ice and rain are directed at sea, and now we turn to another major winter storm that has already resulted in clocks and warnings being sent from Texas to New England. Here we go again.

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I don’t think there is any doubt that when all is said and done and the flowers bloom this spring, we will look back on this period of weather that has been our most active and impactful of the entire winter.

Judging from the reaction on social media, there didn’t seem to be that many fans of ice and rain in the past 24 hours. In fact, we’ve had a lot of people who said they would prefer snow. Well, your wish is my command!

Our next storm will hit the headlines on Wednesday as it throws more snow on Texas and the deep south. On Thursday, it looks like an elongated chain of rain and snow that stretches from New York City to the Florida Panhandle. It will never really unite to form a powerful storm center, at least not until it has long passed the east coast. So this isn’t a case of bombogenesis, heck, I’d hesitate to even call it a nor’easter. There will be very little wind or coastal issues, it’s really all about the snow.

As usual, there has been some disagreement over the past few days about the ultimate fate and trace of this storm. What matters in the days before a storm are trends. Are models “trending” in one way or another … weaker or stronger … a touch closer to the coast or further south. When we are more than 48 hours from the start of a storm, these are usually the most important things for our team. Well, there has been a definite trend in models in the last few days.

(WBZ-TV)

The storm track was getting further and further south, the storm looked weaker and “more extensive” and the air mass above us was always colder. All of these things lead us to our current forecast, which mainly relates to snow for most of our area and generally light to moderate intensity.

TIMELINE:

The first flakes come from the south on Thursday afternoon and evening. It appears that the most stable snow and most of the accumulation is likely to fall overnight from Thursday to early Friday morning.

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(WBZ-TV)

The snow can linger for a good part of the day on Friday, but it mostly looks light and does not collect very much during the day.

Right now, this doesn’t seem like any of those intense band situations where you get several inches of snow in an hour.

(WBZ-TV)

Instead, this storm may be more of a gradual, light to moderate snow event that builds up slowly and evenly over a period of 12 to 24 hours.

HOW MUCH:

Widely used 4-7 “ for much of southern New England. Lighter and fluffier in northwest Boston, where temperatures are coldest and heavier closer to the coast and over southeast MA.

(WBZ-TV)

2 “-4” along the immediate south coast and Cape Cod (due to slight intermingling and heavier, wetter snow). Also 2-4 ”in areas north of Manchester and Keene, New Hampshire. Light and fluffy this way, just less moisture to be further from the storm.

Coating on 2 “ on Nantucket because of the likelihood of mixing with rain.

(WBZ-TV)

WHEN DO WE COME BACK TO “NORMAL”:

I got this question from a few people on Twitter this week. I have news for you … this is normal! In fact, Boston is currently just inches above the average for February snowfall and seasonal snow totals. Perhaps a few years of relatively snow-free winters have left some of us with a false sense of weather security! “Normal” is always difficult to define in bad weather.

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Our averages are really just the middle of the extremes. Think of it this way: in the past 10 years alone, Boston has received between 9.3 and 110.6 inches of snowfall in any given season. Our average or “normal” amount for a season in Boston is 48.7 inches. Sure, for a few years we’re actually getting close to that number (maybe even this year). But for the most part, our wild weather fluctuations end up being rather average. When you are tired of this stormy, snowy weather, you just know that it all goes “on the bank” and quieter days come to make things up at some point.