Along with Florida, Republicans are expected to pull cheaper congressional districts in Georgia, where Democrats hold two competitive districts in the northern suburbs of Atlanta, and Texas, which will add two new seats for the 2022 election.
Ryan’s Democratic District in northeast Ohio is likely to go away when the Ohio Republicans draw a card with one seat less in the House of Representatives, and Representative Filemon Vela of Texas, whose district in the Rio Grande Valley is eight percentage points more from 2016 to 2020 Becoming a Republican, chose to retire rather than participate in what was likely his first competitive re-election offer.
“This is where the 2020 Democratic underperformance really starts to hamper the Democrats’ downballot,” said Ken Spain, a veteran of the House Republican campaign arm. “The Republicans have done well at the state level over the last cycle, and now they will take advantage of many of those red states that have disproportionately high seats.”
With Republicans holding majorities in more state legislatures, and Democrats and voters in key states like California, Colorado, and Virginia having delegated map-making to non-partisan commissions, the restructuring process alone could shift up to five or six seats to Republicans, which may be enough to they seize the majority if they don’t flip any other democratically held seats.
Democrats are expected to take advantage of where they can, particularly in Illinois and New York, states that each lost a house district in redistribution last week. The new map of New York is sure to have a Republican seat in New York State, and one Republican-held seat in central Illinois may be redrawn as Democratic while another is eliminated.
Right now there are more House Republicans, six not seeking re-election, than the five House Democrats who are retiring or running for national office. Of the Republicans, however, only representatives Lee Zeldin and Tom Reed of New York represent boroughs that are plausibly competitive in 2022.
Given that the Democrats have majority control over New York state legislation, Mr. Zeldin, who is running for governor, and Mr. Reed, who stepped back while apologizing for the earlier fumbling charge, could both see that their districts will become far more competitive Democrats.
Reid J. Epstein reported from Washington and Patricia Mazzei from Miami.